Making Sense of the Latest Economic, Automotive and Consumer Trends That Will Impact Your Business This Year and Beyond

By Michael Imlay

Staying ahead of future trends is an essential element of any strategic business plan. Unfortunately, discerning those trends is not an exact science. Inevitably, a constant flow of unanticipated events and issues get thrown into the mix. However, solid data can help add clarity and insight to the business decisions we make.
Enter the 2024 edition of the “SEMA Future Trends Report.” As questions about economic conditions, automotive-industry trends and consumer sentiment continue to swirl, the report is designed to pinpoint the patterns most relevant to the specialty automotive sector and offer fact-based assessments for the future. This essential planning tool is now available and free to SEMA members at SEMA.org/research.
“The U.S. economy saw some volatility and uncertainty in 2023, and some of those questions remain into 2024,” said SEMA Director of Market Research Gavin Knapp. “Specialty-equipment sales grew at a slower pace for the year compared to the gains that we saw coming out of the pandemic. And although enthusiasts were still pushing to modify and accessorize their vehicles, rising inflation combined with sustained supply-chain issues kept expectations down.”
To get a sense of where things are headed, the report dives into relevant data in three principal areas: the health and outlook of the overall economy, automotive industrial and vehicle trends, and consumer dynamics and spending within the sector.

The Economic Outlook

The report discerns that, overall, there are many positives at play in the current U.S. economy, albeit tempered by a few negatives. The nation saw strength in employment and spending numbers along with slowing inflation coming into 2024. Expectations are that for the first half of the year the economy will continue a slow climb before ramping up in the later half of 2024 and into 2025.
Particularly on the employment front, the 2023 job market remained relatively strong and in line with 2022. Most companies maintained their staff levels, with certain sectors—such as tech—seeing scattered layoffs, and others—like healthcare and hospitality—seeing slight hiring boosts.

Amid this relative stability, however, U.S. job and pay growth progressively declined some from the previous year. Moving forward, the job market is expected to continue slowing toward the latter half of 2024, with economists predicting a minor uptick in unemployment claims.
The news on inflation is also generally positive. Fears of continued runaway price hikes have leveled off, and although they are still high, prices are expected to improve throughout 2024. Moreover, the economy’s already-healthy consumer spending figures will likely grow well into 2025.  
Nevertheless, says Knapp, “Even though consumers are spending, there are still a lot of question marks out there. Consumer confidence is still pretty low and hasn’t rebounded. It’s weird to see because in a normal cycle after economic uncertainty it would normally spring back. Obviously, some of this [low consumer confidence] is not purely the economy—it factors in other things, like our political climate and the world picture. But, luckily, people are still spending money at the moment, with the only downside being that some of that spending is now going on credit.”

Industry Trends and Opportunities

Despite their slower growth rate after their late- and post-pandemic surges, sales of specialty-equipment parts continued to climb over the last year, reaching $51.8 billion. This is a new peak for the industry, and despite some market uncertainties, the “SEMA Future Trends Report” forecasts a similar trendline for 2024 with an eventual return to the industry’s normal annual growth rate in 2025.
This is not to say there won’t be challenges in the near term. By definition, the aftermarket’s fortunes are closely tied to those of the OEMs, which have struggled on multiple fronts since the pandemic.
“The number-one vehicle trend to talk about is the COVID-related supply-chain disruptions and the drop in vehicle production and sales over the last few years,” observed Knapp. “Thankfully, that’s working its way out. Over the next few years, we’ll probably get back up to a maximum production of about 16.5 million new vehicles for the United States. That’s not quite the 17-million-plus production of a few years back, but we’re definitely getting back to having a lot more vehicles on the lot now, with virtually full recovery by 2026.”
Indeed, 2023 saw a significant normalization of supply chains with shipping and trucking rates also falling. Although consumer and producer prices remain elevated, the rate of price increases has also slowed. Plus, if inflation continues to slow, the Federal Reserve Board will likely begin easing interest rates later this year, further incentivizing consumers and boosting OEM sales.

As sales recover, Knapp predicts a changing mix of vehicles with fewer variations on dealer lots. “One of the things we’re seeing is a kind of consolidation of vehicle lines. Rather than offering you 100 different options on a vehicle, they’ll offer five option packages to pick from.”
Over the longer term, OEMs will also be shuffling up the overall vehicle landscape. Especially noteworthy: After appearing all-in for virtually full electrification of their fleets by 2035, auto manufacturers are once again re-thinking their strategies surrounding internal-combustion, hybrid and fully electric vehicles (EVs).
“There has been a lot of hype around EVs, and a lot of push for them,” said Knapp. “But we’re coming to a more realistic view of them, both in terms of consumer interest and in the actual ability and requirements to produce them.”

American media has been aflood lately with stories of automotive leaders questioning if government goals for electrification by 2035 are too ambitious. Consumers, apparently, share the sentiment. EVs have not exactly been flying off dealer lots. Recent studies have also shown that, for a number of reasons, many EV owners abandon the technology when it comes time to purchase another car. Nor is it expected that the infrastructure needed to support a nation of EVs will be in place by 2035.
“Supply chains for all of the heavy metals needed for batteries and other necessary components is just not there,” Knapp observed. “There’s also some question that while, yes, you may be eliminating tailpipe emissions, all that pollution is just going somewhere else—like into production.”
“Certainly, EVs are not going away. We’re going to see a lot more of them, just more slowly than predicted. For now, there’s likely to be a lot more push at the entry level to bring the prices down. But it’s also becoming clear that there’s going to be more of a push on hybrids, because OEMs still have to meet tightening CAFE [corporate average fuel economy] standards,” Knapp concluded.
And that’s not the only change affecting the vehicle space, added Knapp. “We’ve shared in other reports before that the OEMs are shifting away from sedans and coupes and moving toward crossovers [CUVs]—vehicles classified as light trucks. Right now, as we look at the Detroit Big Three, less than 10% of the vehicles they produce now are traditional cars. That ‘pseudo truck’ space will continue to be a huge thing for our industry that needs to be weighed and looked at going forward.”
SEMA’s Market Research department will also be closely following powertrain developments. “We’ve seen some interesting flip-flopping occurring,” explains Knapp. “Going back to the ’80s gas crisis, we saw engines get real small. Then as we came out of that in the ’90s and early ’00s, we went back to our big V8s and our big trucks. Now we’re seeing some shift back bringing the gas mileage up with tougher emission standards—fewer cylinders, but also smaller displacements and a rise of power adders like turbos and superchargers for extra power.”
Meanwhile, still other rapidly advancing vehicle technologies are presenting new challenges and opportunities for the aftermarket, most notably autonomous and “self-driving” features. While still a long way from becoming fully mainstream, such emerging tech is bringing a sense of disruption to the vehicle-modification and collision-repair sectors. Once common and relatively simple aftermarket mods, like lifts or new wheel/tire combos, now require more specialized knowledge of the effects on automatic emergency braking, lane keeping and other advanced vehicle safety systems. Even replacing a windshield can demand recalibration of vehicle sensors, cameras and other systems.

The Consumer Front

As stated before, consumers overall are still spending, but inflation and worries about the economy have definitely modified their vehicle buying habits. Part of this may be due to the impact of many automotive-related costs on their budgets. Auto financing, insurance rates and maintenance and repair costs have remained high, even as car prices have seemed to plateau. These costs combined with the improved quality of late-model vehicles have encouraged owners to hang onto their vehicles longer. What isn’t diminishing, however, is their love for their cars and trucks.
“One of the continuing trends we’re always looking at is the generational interaction with the automobile,” Knapp explained. “We hear a lot about young people being less enthusiastic about cars, but our research says that’s not true. More than half of the people who buy from our industry and are accessorizing are under age 40. From their 20s into their 30s—that’s a big sweet spot for us. Those consumers still tend to do more aggressive modifications. Yes, when you’re older, you may have more money, but you may not have the energy or inclination to crawl under your vehicle.”
In fact, even with today’s licensing restrictions delaying some teens from driving, on the whole Knapp has found there are more young drivers under age 25 than there were 30 years ago. (For that matter, at the opposite end of the scale, there are also more drivers in the 60–80 age group.)
According to Knapp, the young aftermarket consumer is changing demographically as well, with more females becoming enthusiasts. “The biggest emerging aftermarket opportunity relates to young people, but if you can attract the growing female audience, that’s 50% of the population right there. And we’re definitely seeing more companies doing that. Across all parts of our society now, personalization is huge, from phones to toys and other items. Once you get into a car, why wouldn’t you continue it there?”
The bottom line, said Knapp, is the industry is well positioned for near-term and future growth, despite the question marks raised by the present economy, industry challenges and changing nature of its consumers:
“There are nearly 300 million passenger cars on the road and currently 20%–25% of those are accessorized every year. And every year that number just keeps getting larger. That’s a big opportunity for us.”

Case Study: How SEMA Market Research Contributes to Sound Decisions

Innovation and entrepreneurial spirit drive the development of new specialty-automotive products. But given the investments in design, engineering, tooling and merchandising to bring a concept to market, there’s a certain element of risk.
With this in mind, Melanie Hellwig White, CEO of Visalia, California-based Hellwig Products, recently found herself in a quandary. As a manufacturer, White sees the introduction of new products as key to a company’s growth, but believes it takes more than a “gut feeling” to ensure a successful product unveiling.
“We were working on a new product,” explained White. “I had a specific customer pool in mind and the vehicle years I wanted to target. But was it worth a tooling investment? Manufacturers, especially smaller manufacturers like my company, don’t have a ton of resources. I don’t have a research team that can give me the information I need to launch a product. So I reached out to [SEMA Director of Market Research] Gavin Knapp.”
White knew that SEMA’s Market Research department offers a bevy of tools to members, from comprehensive annual market reports to niche-market studies and other relevant data—all free to SEMA members.
“Gavin has a wealth of knowledge,” said White. “He understood what I was trying to accomplish and pulled vehicles in operation (VIO) data so that I could see if I wanted to make a product in this space. I didn’t know that was the information I needed, but I knew Gavin would point me in the right direction. It allowed me to make an educated decision.”
White’s yearslong experience as a volunteer—including an 11-year leadership stint on the Light Truck & Accessory Alliance (LTAA) select committee (now the Truck & Off-Road Alliance/TORA), along with service on the SEMA Board of Directors—has expanded her perspective on SEMA’s many member benefits.
“SEMA is much more than the Show. The real benefit for me is knowing about all the resources that exist for SEMA members. Being able to tap into those resources is a huge benefit that not everyone knows about,” she said.  —Ellen McKoy

Making Sense of the Latest Economic, Automotive and Consumer Trends That Will Impact Your Business This Year and Beyond

By Michael Imlay

Staying ahead of future trends is an essential element of any strategic business plan. Unfortunately, discerning those trends is not an exact science. Inevitably, a constant flow of unanticipated events and issues get thrown into the mix. However, solid data can help add clarity and insight to the business decisions we make.
Enter the 2024 edition of the “SEMA Future Trends Report.” As questions about economic conditions, automotive-industry trends and consumer sentiment continue to swirl, the report is designed to pinpoint the patterns most relevant to the specialty automotive sector and offer fact-based assessments for the future. This essential planning tool is now available and free to SEMA members at SEMA.org/research.
“The U.S. economy saw some volatility and uncertainty in 2023, and some of those questions remain into 2024,” said SEMA Director of Market Research Gavin Knapp. “Specialty-equipment sales grew at a slower pace for the year compared to the gains that we saw coming out of the pandemic. And although enthusiasts were still pushing to modify and accessorize their vehicles, rising inflation combined with sustained supply-chain issues kept expectations down.”
To get a sense of where things are headed, the report dives into relevant data in three principal areas: the health and outlook of the overall economy, automotive industrial and vehicle trends, and consumer dynamics and spending within the sector.

The Economic Outlook

The report discerns that, overall, there are many positives at play in the current U.S. economy, albeit tempered by a few negatives. The nation saw strength in employment and spending numbers along with slowing inflation coming into 2024. Expectations are that for the first half of the year the economy will continue a slow climb before ramping up in the later half of 2024 and into 2025.
Particularly on the employment front, the 2023 job market remained relatively strong and in line with 2022. Most companies maintained their staff levels, with certain sectors—such as tech—seeing scattered layoffs, and others—like healthcare and hospitality—seeing slight hiring boosts.

Amid this relative stability, however, U.S. job and pay growth progressively declined some from the previous year. Moving forward, the job market is expected to continue slowing toward the latter half of 2024, with economists predicting a minor uptick in unemployment claims.
The news on inflation is also generally positive. Fears of continued runaway price hikes have leveled off, and although they are still high, prices are expected to improve throughout 2024. Moreover, the economy’s already-healthy consumer spending figures will likely grow well into 2025.  
Nevertheless, says Knapp, “Even though consumers are spending, there are still a lot of question marks out there. Consumer confidence is still pretty low and hasn’t rebounded. It’s weird to see because in a normal cycle after economic uncertainty it would normally spring back. Obviously, some of this [low consumer confidence] is not purely the economy—it factors in other things, like our political climate and the world picture. But, luckily, people are still spending money at the moment, with the only downside being that some of that spending is now going on credit.”

Industry Trends and Opportunities

Despite their slower growth rate after their late- and post-pandemic surges, sales of specialty-equipment parts continued to climb over the last year, reaching $51.8 billion. This is a new peak for the industry, and despite some market uncertainties, the “SEMA Future Trends Report” forecasts a similar trendline for 2024 with an eventual return to the industry’s normal annual growth rate in 2025.
This is not to say there won’t be challenges in the near term. By definition, the aftermarket’s fortunes are closely tied to those of the OEMs, which have struggled on multiple fronts since the pandemic.
“The number-one vehicle trend to talk about is the COVID-related supply-chain disruptions and the drop in vehicle production and sales over the last few years,” observed Knapp. “Thankfully, that’s working its way out. Over the next few years, we’ll probably get back up to a maximum production of about 16.5 million new vehicles for the United States. That’s not quite the 17-million-plus production of a few years back, but we’re definitely getting back to having a lot more vehicles on the lot now, with virtually full recovery by 2026.”
Indeed, 2023 saw a significant normalization of supply chains with shipping and trucking rates also falling. Although consumer and producer prices remain elevated, the rate of price increases has also slowed. Plus, if inflation continues to slow, the Federal Reserve Board will likely begin easing interest rates later this year, further incentivizing consumers and boosting OEM sales.

As sales recover, Knapp predicts a changing mix of vehicles with fewer variations on dealer lots. “One of the things we’re seeing is a kind of consolidation of vehicle lines. Rather than offering you 100 different options on a vehicle, they’ll offer five option packages to pick from.”
Over the longer term, OEMs will also be shuffling up the overall vehicle landscape. Especially noteworthy: After appearing all-in for virtually full electrification of their fleets by 2035, auto manufacturers are once again re-thinking their strategies surrounding internal-combustion, hybrid and fully electric vehicles (EVs).
“There has been a lot of hype around EVs, and a lot of push for them,” said Knapp. “But we’re coming to a more realistic view of them, both in terms of consumer interest and in the actual ability and requirements to produce them.”

American media has been aflood lately with stories of automotive leaders questioning if government goals for electrification by 2035 are too ambitious. Consumers, apparently, share the sentiment. EVs have not exactly been flying off dealer lots. Recent studies have also shown that, for a number of reasons, many EV owners abandon the technology when it comes time to purchase another car. Nor is it expected that the infrastructure needed to support a nation of EVs will be in place by 2035.
“Supply chains for all of the heavy metals needed for batteries and other necessary components is just not there,” Knapp observed. “There’s also some question that while, yes, you may be eliminating tailpipe emissions, all that pollution is just going somewhere else—like into production.”
“Certainly, EVs are not going away. We’re going to see a lot more of them, just more slowly than predicted. For now, there’s likely to be a lot more push at the entry level to bring the prices down. But it’s also becoming clear that there’s going to be more of a push on hybrids, because OEMs still have to meet tightening CAFE [corporate average fuel economy] standards,” Knapp concluded.
And that’s not the only change affecting the vehicle space, added Knapp. “We’ve shared in other reports before that the OEMs are shifting away from sedans and coupes and moving toward crossovers [CUVs]—vehicles classified as light trucks. Right now, as we look at the Detroit Big Three, less than 10% of the vehicles they produce now are traditional cars. That ‘pseudo truck’ space will continue to be a huge thing for our industry that needs to be weighed and looked at going forward.”
SEMA’s Market Research department will also be closely following powertrain developments. “We’ve seen some interesting flip-flopping occurring,” explains Knapp. “Going back to the ’80s gas crisis, we saw engines get real small. Then as we came out of that in the ’90s and early ’00s, we went back to our big V8s and our big trucks. Now we’re seeing some shift back bringing the gas mileage up with tougher emission standards—fewer cylinders, but also smaller displacements and a rise of power adders like turbos and superchargers for extra power.”
Meanwhile, still other rapidly advancing vehicle technologies are presenting new challenges and opportunities for the aftermarket, most notably autonomous and “self-driving” features. While still a long way from becoming fully mainstream, such emerging tech is bringing a sense of disruption to the vehicle-modification and collision-repair sectors. Once common and relatively simple aftermarket mods, like lifts or new wheel/tire combos, now require more specialized knowledge of the effects on automatic emergency braking, lane keeping and other advanced vehicle safety systems. Even replacing a windshield can demand recalibration of vehicle sensors, cameras and other systems.

The Consumer Front

As stated before, consumers overall are still spending, but inflation and worries about the economy have definitely modified their vehicle buying habits. Part of this may be due to the impact of many automotive-related costs on their budgets. Auto financing, insurance rates and maintenance and repair costs have remained high, even as car prices have seemed to plateau. These costs combined with the improved quality of late-model vehicles have encouraged owners to hang onto their vehicles longer. What isn’t diminishing, however, is their love for their cars and trucks.
“One of the continuing trends we’re always looking at is the generational interaction with the automobile,” Knapp explained. “We hear a lot about young people being less enthusiastic about cars, but our research says that’s not true. More than half of the people who buy from our industry and are accessorizing are under age 40. From their 20s into their 30s—that’s a big sweet spot for us. Those consumers still tend to do more aggressive modifications. Yes, when you’re older, you may have more money, but you may not have the energy or inclination to crawl under your vehicle.”
In fact, even with today’s licensing restrictions delaying some teens from driving, on the whole Knapp has found there are more young drivers under age 25 than there were 30 years ago. (For that matter, at the opposite end of the scale, there are also more drivers in the 60–80 age group.)
According to Knapp, the young aftermarket consumer is changing demographically as well, with more females becoming enthusiasts. “The biggest emerging aftermarket opportunity relates to young people, but if you can attract the growing female audience, that’s 50% of the population right there. And we’re definitely seeing more companies doing that. Across all parts of our society now, personalization is huge, from phones to toys and other items. Once you get into a car, why wouldn’t you continue it there?”
The bottom line, said Knapp, is the industry is well positioned for near-term and future growth, despite the question marks raised by the present economy, industry challenges and changing nature of its consumers:
“There are nearly 300 million passenger cars on the road and currently 20%–25% of those are accessorized every year. And every year that number just keeps getting larger. That’s a big opportunity for us.”

Case Study: How SEMA Market Research Contributes to Sound Decisions

Innovation and entrepreneurial spirit drive the development of new specialty-automotive products. But given the investments in design, engineering, tooling and merchandising to bring a concept to market, there’s a certain element of risk.
With this in mind, Melanie Hellwig White, CEO of Visalia, California-based Hellwig Products, recently found herself in a quandary. As a manufacturer, White sees the introduction of new products as key to a company’s growth, but believes it takes more than a “gut feeling” to ensure a successful product unveiling.
“We were working on a new product,” explained White. “I had a specific customer pool in mind and the vehicle years I wanted to target. But was it worth a tooling investment? Manufacturers, especially smaller manufacturers like my company, don’t have a ton of resources. I don’t have a research team that can give me the information I need to launch a product. So I reached out to [SEMA Director of Market Research] Gavin Knapp.”
White knew that SEMA’s Market Research department offers a bevy of tools to members, from comprehensive annual market reports to niche-market studies and other relevant data—all free to SEMA members.
“Gavin has a wealth of knowledge,” said White. “He understood what I was trying to accomplish and pulled vehicles in operation (VIO) data so that I could see if I wanted to make a product in this space. I didn’t know that was the information I needed, but I knew Gavin would point me in the right direction. It allowed me to make an educated decision.”
White’s yearslong experience as a volunteer—including an 11-year leadership stint on the Light Truck & Accessory Alliance (LTAA) select committee (now the Truck & Off-Road Alliance/TORA), along with service on the SEMA Board of Directors—has expanded her perspective on SEMA’s many member benefits.
“SEMA is much more than the Show. The real benefit for me is knowing about all the resources that exist for SEMA members. Being able to tap into those resources is a huge benefit that not everyone knows about,” she said.  —Ellen McKoy

Making Sense of the Latest Economic, Automotive and Consumer Trends That Will Impact Your Business This Year and Beyond

By Michael Imlay

Staying ahead of future trends is an essential element of any strategic business plan. Unfortunately, discerning those trends is not an exact science. Inevitably, a constant flow of unanticipated events and issues get thrown into the mix. However, solid data can help add clarity and insight to the business decisions we make.
Enter the 2024 edition of the “SEMA Future Trends Report.” As questions about economic conditions, automotive-industry trends and consumer sentiment continue to swirl, the report is designed to pinpoint the patterns most relevant to the specialty automotive sector and offer fact-based assessments for the future. This essential planning tool is now available and free to SEMA members at SEMA.org/research.
“The U.S. economy saw some volatility and uncertainty in 2023, and some of those questions remain into 2024,” said SEMA Director of Market Research Gavin Knapp. “Specialty-equipment sales grew at a slower pace for the year compared to the gains that we saw coming out of the pandemic. And although enthusiasts were still pushing to modify and accessorize their vehicles, rising inflation combined with sustained supply-chain issues kept expectations down.”
To get a sense of where things are headed, the report dives into relevant data in three principal areas: the health and outlook of the overall economy, automotive industrial and vehicle trends, and consumer dynamics and spending within the sector.

The Economic Outlook

The report discerns that, overall, there are many positives at play in the current U.S. economy, albeit tempered by a few negatives. The nation saw strength in employment and spending numbers along with slowing inflation coming into 2024. Expectations are that for the first half of the year the economy will continue a slow climb before ramping up in the later half of 2024 and into 2025.
Particularly on the employment front, the 2023 job market remained relatively strong and in line with 2022. Most companies maintained their staff levels, with certain sectors—such as tech—seeing scattered layoffs, and others—like healthcare and hospitality—seeing slight hiring boosts.

Amid this relative stability, however, U.S. job and pay growth progressively declined some from the previous year. Moving forward, the job market is expected to continue slowing toward the latter half of 2024, with economists predicting a minor uptick in unemployment claims.
The news on inflation is also generally positive. Fears of continued runaway price hikes have leveled off, and although they are still high, prices are expected to improve throughout 2024. Moreover, the economy’s already-healthy consumer spending figures will likely grow well into 2025.  
Nevertheless, says Knapp, “Even though consumers are spending, there are still a lot of question marks out there. Consumer confidence is still pretty low and hasn’t rebounded. It’s weird to see because in a normal cycle after economic uncertainty it would normally spring back. Obviously, some of this [low consumer confidence] is not purely the economy—it factors in other things, like our political climate and the world picture. But, luckily, people are still spending money at the moment, with the only downside being that some of that spending is now going on credit.”

Industry Trends and Opportunities

Despite their slower growth rate after their late- and post-pandemic surges, sales of specialty-equipment parts continued to climb over the last year, reaching $51.8 billion. This is a new peak for the industry, and despite some market uncertainties, the “SEMA Future Trends Report” forecasts a similar trendline for 2024 with an eventual return to the industry’s normal annual growth rate in 2025.
This is not to say there won’t be challenges in the near term. By definition, the aftermarket’s fortunes are closely tied to those of the OEMs, which have struggled on multiple fronts since the pandemic.
“The number-one vehicle trend to talk about is the COVID-related supply-chain disruptions and the drop in vehicle production and sales over the last few years,” observed Knapp. “Thankfully, that’s working its way out. Over the next few years, we’ll probably get back up to a maximum production of about 16.5 million new vehicles for the United States. That’s not quite the 17-million-plus production of a few years back, but we’re definitely getting back to having a lot more vehicles on the lot now, with virtually full recovery by 2026.”
Indeed, 2023 saw a significant normalization of supply chains with shipping and trucking rates also falling. Although consumer and producer prices remain elevated, the rate of price increases has also slowed. Plus, if inflation continues to slow, the Federal Reserve Board will likely begin easing interest rates later this year, further incentivizing consumers and boosting OEM sales.

As sales recover, Knapp predicts a changing mix of vehicles with fewer variations on dealer lots. “One of the things we’re seeing is a kind of consolidation of vehicle lines. Rather than offering you 100 different options on a vehicle, they’ll offer five option packages to pick from.”
Over the longer term, OEMs will also be shuffling up the overall vehicle landscape. Especially noteworthy: After appearing all-in for virtually full electrification of their fleets by 2035, auto manufacturers are once again re-thinking their strategies surrounding internal-combustion, hybrid and fully electric vehicles (EVs).
“There has been a lot of hype around EVs, and a lot of push for them,” said Knapp. “But we’re coming to a more realistic view of them, both in terms of consumer interest and in the actual ability and requirements to produce them.”

American media has been aflood lately with stories of automotive leaders questioning if government goals for electrification by 2035 are too ambitious. Consumers, apparently, share the sentiment. EVs have not exactly been flying off dealer lots. Recent studies have also shown that, for a number of reasons, many EV owners abandon the technology when it comes time to purchase another car. Nor is it expected that the infrastructure needed to support a nation of EVs will be in place by 2035.
“Supply chains for all of the heavy metals needed for batteries and other necessary components is just not there,” Knapp observed. “There’s also some question that while, yes, you may be eliminating tailpipe emissions, all that pollution is just going somewhere else—like into production.”
“Certainly, EVs are not going away. We’re going to see a lot more of them, just more slowly than predicted. For now, there’s likely to be a lot more push at the entry level to bring the prices down. But it’s also becoming clear that there’s going to be more of a push on hybrids, because OEMs still have to meet tightening CAFE [corporate average fuel economy] standards,” Knapp concluded.
And that’s not the only change affecting the vehicle space, added Knapp. “We’ve shared in other reports before that the OEMs are shifting away from sedans and coupes and moving toward crossovers [CUVs]—vehicles classified as light trucks. Right now, as we look at the Detroit Big Three, less than 10% of the vehicles they produce now are traditional cars. That ‘pseudo truck’ space will continue to be a huge thing for our industry that needs to be weighed and looked at going forward.”
SEMA’s Market Research department will also be closely following powertrain developments. “We’ve seen some interesting flip-flopping occurring,” explains Knapp. “Going back to the ’80s gas crisis, we saw engines get real small. Then as we came out of that in the ’90s and early ’00s, we went back to our big V8s and our big trucks. Now we’re seeing some shift back bringing the gas mileage up with tougher emission standards—fewer cylinders, but also smaller displacements and a rise of power adders like turbos and superchargers for extra power.”
Meanwhile, still other rapidly advancing vehicle technologies are presenting new challenges and opportunities for the aftermarket, most notably autonomous and “self-driving” features. While still a long way from becoming fully mainstream, such emerging tech is bringing a sense of disruption to the vehicle-modification and collision-repair sectors. Once common and relatively simple aftermarket mods, like lifts or new wheel/tire combos, now require more specialized knowledge of the effects on automatic emergency braking, lane keeping and other advanced vehicle safety systems. Even replacing a windshield can demand recalibration of vehicle sensors, cameras and other systems.

The Consumer Front

As stated before, consumers overall are still spending, but inflation and worries about the economy have definitely modified their vehicle buying habits. Part of this may be due to the impact of many automotive-related costs on their budgets. Auto financing, insurance rates and maintenance and repair costs have remained high, even as car prices have seemed to plateau. These costs combined with the improved quality of late-model vehicles have encouraged owners to hang onto their vehicles longer. What isn’t diminishing, however, is their love for their cars and trucks.
“One of the continuing trends we’re always looking at is the generational interaction with the automobile,” Knapp explained. “We hear a lot about young people being less enthusiastic about cars, but our research says that’s not true. More than half of the people who buy from our industry and are accessorizing are under age 40. From their 20s into their 30s—that’s a big sweet spot for us. Those consumers still tend to do more aggressive modifications. Yes, when you’re older, you may have more money, but you may not have the energy or inclination to crawl under your vehicle.”
In fact, even with today’s licensing restrictions delaying some teens from driving, on the whole Knapp has found there are more young drivers under age 25 than there were 30 years ago. (For that matter, at the opposite end of the scale, there are also more drivers in the 60–80 age group.)
According to Knapp, the young aftermarket consumer is changing demographically as well, with more females becoming enthusiasts. “The biggest emerging aftermarket opportunity relates to young people, but if you can attract the growing female audience, that’s 50% of the population right there. And we’re definitely seeing more companies doing that. Across all parts of our society now, personalization is huge, from phones to toys and other items. Once you get into a car, why wouldn’t you continue it there?”
The bottom line, said Knapp, is the industry is well positioned for near-term and future growth, despite the question marks raised by the present economy, industry challenges and changing nature of its consumers:
“There are nearly 300 million passenger cars on the road and currently 20%–25% of those are accessorized every year. And every year that number just keeps getting larger. That’s a big opportunity for us.”

Case Study: How SEMA Market Research Contributes to Sound Decisions

Innovation and entrepreneurial spirit drive the development of new specialty-automotive products. But given the investments in design, engineering, tooling and merchandising to bring a concept to market, there’s a certain element of risk.
With this in mind, Melanie Hellwig White, CEO of Visalia, California-based Hellwig Products, recently found herself in a quandary. As a manufacturer, White sees the introduction of new products as key to a company’s growth, but believes it takes more than a “gut feeling” to ensure a successful product unveiling.
“We were working on a new product,” explained White. “I had a specific customer pool in mind and the vehicle years I wanted to target. But was it worth a tooling investment? Manufacturers, especially smaller manufacturers like my company, don’t have a ton of resources. I don’t have a research team that can give me the information I need to launch a product. So I reached out to [SEMA Director of Market Research] Gavin Knapp.”
White knew that SEMA’s Market Research department offers a bevy of tools to members, from comprehensive annual market reports to niche-market studies and other relevant data—all free to SEMA members.
“Gavin has a wealth of knowledge,” said White. “He understood what I was trying to accomplish and pulled vehicles in operation (VIO) data so that I could see if I wanted to make a product in this space. I didn’t know that was the information I needed, but I knew Gavin would point me in the right direction. It allowed me to make an educated decision.”
White’s yearslong experience as a volunteer—including an 11-year leadership stint on the Light Truck & Accessory Alliance (LTAA) select committee (now the Truck & Off-Road Alliance/TORA), along with service on the SEMA Board of Directors—has expanded her perspective on SEMA’s many member benefits.
“SEMA is much more than the Show. The real benefit for me is knowing about all the resources that exist for SEMA members. Being able to tap into those resources is a huge benefit that not everyone knows about,” she said.  —Ellen McKoy

Does Our Industry Have Five More Years?

Recently I had the opportunity to address a large professional gathering of specialty-automotive business leaders.
I began by reading a sobering editorial from an industry publication. It was titled, “Does Our Industry Have Just 5 Yrs. Left?”
Its author opened by asserting that we may well wake up some morning a few years hence to find that, except for racers, there are no customers left to buy our industry’s performance products.
“We also may wake up and discover that a future generation of young people aren’t all that interested in the automobile because the glamour and excitement of it is gone—legislated away by safety and clean-air bills…,” he continued. “You, yourself might be driving a ‘sensibly styled’ and compact-sized sedan, capable of [a] speed no greater than 85 miles per hour.” The possibility isn’t that remote, the writer warned. Regulation presents a clear and present threat to our shared passion and livelihood.
You could’ve heard a pin drop. The article clearly resonated with the industry professionals I was addressing. They felt the danger.
But that silence broke into applause when I revealed that the editorial was from High Performance News & Products, a forerunner to this magazine, back in 1971.
My point is, we’ve been here before. In the ’70s, that editorial’s author, Robert S. Cusick, proposed several strategies to confront the crisis. First, a concerted effort through a full-time Washington, D.C., office to protect consumers and the industry from onerous legislation. Second, a voluntary industry testing program through an independent lab to demonstrate emissions compliance. And third, he urged developing a forum for industry leaders to gather regularly to solve shared problems and issues, including advancing technologies.

Does this sound familiar? Today we can proudly say the industry has done all this and more. Thanks to the pioneering efforts of SEMA founders and industry advocates like former SEMA General Council Russ Deane, Hot Rod Editor Jim McFarland and others, we successfully challenged regulatory overreach in the ’70s, and have continued the battle ever since. We ultimately established the SEMA Garage program in 2012 to help members achieve emissions compliance (see p. 18) and harness emerging tech to speed their products to market. And through SEMA’s various councils, networks and forums, we continue to solve shared problems, set industry standards and educate our members on critical topics.
We haven’t slowed our efforts, either. Today we are pushing to forge new relationships in Washington, D.C., state legislatures and local governments—winning new allies to our cause. We are rallying our consumers to join the fight. We have greatly expanded our SEMA Garage programs to stay abreast of emerging technologies and are taking our seat at the table to ensure we aren’t locked out of OEM platforms. And this is only a quick rundown of our efforts to protect our industry and advance car culture.
Our industry overcame the challenges of the ’70s and is stronger today than ever. Now it’s up to our generation to again come together, roll up our sleeves and create an even greater future.

By Drew Hardin
Photography Courtesy Petersen Publishing Company Archive

On February 9, 1964, the Beatles made their first appearance on “The Ed Sullivan Show,” a performance that kicked off not just Beatlemania in the United States but what was then called the British Invasion. Suddenly, shaggy British music groups became the in, groovy thing. Pop music would never be the same.
Nearly a year earlier, another British invasion of sorts took place at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Colin Chapman, founder of Lotus Cars, brought two Ford-powered Lotus 29 race cars to the Brickyard for the 1963 500. One of them, driven by Jimmy Clark, finished second. Indy car racing would never be the same.
This was the era when competition at Indianapolis was dominated by Indy Roadsters. Built by Kurtis-Kraft, A.J. Watson, Eddie Kuzma and others, they were constructed from tube space frames clad with lightweight bodywork, fitted with beam axles front and rear, and were often powered by four-cylinder, dual-overhead-cam Offenhauser engines. By comparison, Chapman’s Lotus was low to the ground and tubular shaped, its engine located behind the driver.
The Lotus wasn’t the first to compete at Indy with this drivetrain layout. It wasn’t even the first British Indy competitor with that configuration. Jack Brabham drove a Formula 1-derived Cooper-Climax T54 to a ninth-place finish at the 1961 500. But the Lotus was the first to utilize Chapman’s innovative monocoque construction, in which “body and chassis become one with a stressed skin riveted overall,” wrote Hot Rod magazine’s Eric Rickman in the June 1963 issue.
It also marked the first time “that an English car builder and an American factory collaborated to run at an event of this nature,” Rickman said. Ford supplied engines to Chapman—“an all-aluminum job based on the current Fairlane V8 engine”—with four Weber down-draft carburetors ingesting gasoline, not the methanol race fuel favored by other competitors. “Ford will admit to horsepower in excess of 350 at 6,000 to 8,000 rpm,” Rickman said. “The grapevine says it is as high as 370 horses on gas.”

An Offenhauser, Rickman noted, “puts out about 400 horses on alky, so it would appear that the ‘new breed’ is giving away a lot in the horsepower department.” Not so, he said. “They get it all back as free horsepower in greatly reduced frontal area and a much lower weight.”
Proof of concept came during testing in March 1963, when Dan Gurney turned laps in the Lotus/Ford at more than 150 mph—about the same speed Parnelli Jones hit to earn the pole position for the 1962 race. Gurney was a little slower in qualifying: 149.019, putting him 12th on the grid. Slightly faster was his teammate, Clark, at 149.75 mph, good for fifth on the grid. Pole position was again won by Jones, qualifying his Watson-built, Offy-powered “Old Calhoun” roadster at 151.153 mph.

Not surprisingly, this “new breed” of Indy racer generated controversy prior to the race. Some of it had to do with its tire and wheel sizes. Traditional Indy Roadsters used 16-in. wheels in front and 18s in back, while the Lotuses had 15-in. wheels at all four corners. Firestone “widened the smaller tires to regain track contact area,” wrote Ray Brock in his Indy 500 report for the August 1963 Hot Rod, which seemed to some in the “Offy camp” to be an unfair advantage. Despite demands by some teams, Firestone refused to withdraw the tires, stating they offered no advantage. Several drivers tested them and did not improve their speeds, but Jones went faster.
“The truth of the matter is that Parnelli is such a superior driver on the Indy track that he probably could have done the same speed on tractor tires,” Brock said. Yet Jones’ 153-mph lap speeds “opened the floodgates,” forcing Firestone and Halibrand to quickly ramp up production of the in-demand gear.

Jones dominated the 1963 Indy 500, leading 167 of the race’s 200 laps. Not long after his first pit stop, “track loudspeakers announced that Clark and Gurney were running one-two in the Lotus/Fords,” Brock reported. “A mighty roar went up from the spectators, and it was obvious that the sentimental favorites of the crowd were the small, low-slung cars with the high-pitched exhaust.”
Clark did lead the race for 28 laps—the most after Jones—and at one point late in the race came close to catching him but got caught in traffic during a yellow flag period. He finished 33 sec. behind Jones. Gurney finished seventh and likely would have done better, but after smacking the wall on the first day of qualifying, he had to leave Indianapolis for the Formula 1 race in Monaco and never had adequate time to sort out the Lotus backup car when he returned.

The impact Chapman and his Lotus/Fords had on Indianapolis racing became obvious when teams gathered at the Brickyard for the 1964 race. As Brock reported in Hot Rod’s August 1964 issue, “Ford-powered cars grabbed all three front-row starting positions.” Two of them were Lotuses, one was a Watson-built rear-engine car. Those performances pushed “America’s two best drivers, Parnelli Jones and A.J. Foyt,” down to fourth and fifth positions in their front-engine Offy roadsters. Clark’s pole-winning 158.828-mph qualifying speed was more than 7.5 mph faster than Jones’ pole winner the year before. At the end of qualifying, a full dozen of the 33-car field were rear-engine entries, seven with Ford engines, five with Offenhausers.

Several factors contributed to the jump in speeds between 1963 and 1964, Brock noted. The switch to lightweight chassis with independent suspensions played a role, as did Ford’s new engine, which produced 475 hp on alcohol fuel. But the single most important contributor was tire technology, he said. Firestone, which for years “had the Indy race to themselves,” suddenly had competition from Goodyear, Sears-Roebuck’s Allstate and Dunlop. Firestone’s Racing Division initiated an extensive off-season program to improve its Indianapolis tires; and by race day, almost all the entries were running Firestones, save for the Allstates on Mickey Thompson’s cars and the Dunlops on the Lotuses.

“Experts on the Indy scene” questioned Chapman’s choice, as the Dunlops showed a tendency to “chunk out” pieces of tread during practice, Brock reported. It would prove a fateful decision, as Clark’s rear suspension collapsed on the 47th lap, breakage caused by an imbalance of the left rear tire due to its losing almost a third of its tread. Gurney’s day wasn’t much better. An unscheduled pit stop early in the race slowed his pace; and when tire damage was noticed during his scheduled pit stop, Chapman decided to bring him in.
A pit lane fire sidelined Jones, clearing the way for Foyt to win the race. It would be the final time an Indy Roadster won Indy.
“The picture is now clear,” Brock wrote. “Rear-engined cars will dominate future Indy 500s. The roadster is through, but it’s still the champion.” A year later, Clark and Chapman celebrated in Indy’s winner’s circle after a lopsided performance that saw Clark’s Lotus/Ford lead all but 10 laps of the 1965 race.

Newest Tools Give You a Shot at a Slam-Dunk

by Joe Dysart

One of the great advantages in marketing on social networks is the collection of social-media management services currently available to help you.
For the careful buyer, these services offer businesses a suite of effective tools to handle and assess their social-media marketing campaigns across a wide array of networks.
Says Jamie Gilpin, chief marketing officer of Sprout Social: “By giving every department access to the latest social intelligence, marketers can lead their business strategies while
ensuring their organization stays ahead of the competition.”
Generally, best-of-breed social-media management services enable you to auto-post to all the social-network services you promote on, check on what your competition is up to and give you in-depth analysis on your promotional goals.
These services also include top-notch analytics that allow you to trace all the data associated with your posts, get a precise look at the size and demographics of every social-media hangout you’re on, and see metrics on how your audience is engaging with your posts.
Plus, these analytics allow you to aggregate and compare your relative performance on every social network where you have a presence—further enabling you to get a much better idea of where you’re hitting and where you’re missing.

While marketers have been keen on promoting heavily on social media for some time now, new polls indicate that the competition for attention on digital will be getting even more ferocious in coming years.
For example Sprout Social, a social-media management service, recently reported that a May 2023 Harris poll found that 80% of business leaders will
be increasing their marketing
budgets for social media during the next three years. (See “The 2023 State of Social Media:
AI & Data Take Center Stage,” at Sproutsocial.com.)
And 96% agreed that their social-media presence is integral in their efforts to capture customer sentiment and feedback.
Meanwhile, a 2023 Sprout Social study found that 53% of consumers say they’re using social media even more than they did during the COVID epidemic, when a great percentage of the population was shuttered-in-place.
A good way to get a bead on state-of-the-art social-media management services is to take a close look at the top five providers in the genre identified by G2.com, a highly respected software rating service.
Essentially, G2.com has a reputation for soliciting and posting authentic reviews for actual customers and then carefully analyzing those reviews to deliver its take on the top software services in any specific genre.
For 2023, G2.com found that in addition to providing a wide array of posting and analytical services, some of the most popular providers are also attempting to distinguish themselves in the market by offering unique services.
Sprout Social, for example, offers a complete module for managing contacts and social-media campaigns with professional social-media influencers, as well as everyday consumers who post reviews, comments, evaluations and demos online regarding products and services.
And Reputation weighs in with a heavy emphasis on requesting, triggering, collecting and responding to reviews, in addition to its standard social-media management and analysis tools.
Meanwhile, SEMRush, which started out as a tool devoted to optimizing digital content for high returns on the search engine optimization (SEO), unsurprisingly has retained that primary focus as it has expanded its service to include more standard social-media management and analysis.
That said, here’s a look at the top five social-media management services as judged by actual business users on G2.com—services you can use as a benchmark to compare and contrast other services currently vying for your business:

• Zoho Social, 4.6/5 Stars (Zoho.com/social): Like very best-of-breed solutions, Zoho Social enables you to schedule posts, monitor social-media mentions of your company and track social-media conversations that are relevant to you.
Zoho Social also enables you to create and regularly generate custom reports analyzing what you’re looking to learn about your presence on social media. And you’re also able to create custom dashboards that give you a quick glimpse at any given time on the key performance and analytical metrics you’re tracking.
• Reputation, 4.5/5 Stars (Reputation.com): Reputation offers a heavy emphasis on reviews and is designed to help automate the process of triggering, collecting, analyzing and responding to customer reviews on the web and social media.
Other analytics enable you to track customer sentiment directed at your brand on the web and social media, check up on what your competitors are doing, and optimize your product and service web landing pages for SEO.
Reputation is also sold on the idea of companies creating a library of authentic customer reviews—even if that means posting reviews on your website that are less than flattering.
Sara Rossio, chief product officer of G2, agrees with that approach. “To be most valuable though, reviews must be authentic,” she says. “We’ve seen that brands are actually viewed as more trustworthy when they have some negative reviews, as long as they engage with reviewers and respond to them.”
• SOCi, 4.5/5 Stars (Meetsoci.com): SOCi is designed with a heavy emphasis on monitoring and protecting a company’s reputation online. Its tools enable you to monitor and respond to conversations and comments, monitor the performance of your promotional content across all networks and coordinate your responses to customer reviews.
SOCi also offers customer survey tools, customized reports, and is designed to be easy to use on a smartphone or similar mobile device.

• SEMRush, 4.5/5 Stars (Semrush.com): SEMRush has established a reputation as one of the ultimate go-to tools for optimizing your promotional content posted on social media on the web for SEO.
Master SEMRush and there’s a very good chance that your promotional content is going to show up much higher on Google, Bing and other search engines, as well as social-media platforms that offer their own powerful search box, such as YouTube.
Lately, SEMRush has expanded into offering more standard social-media management tools, such as social-media posting and analytics, as well as tools that help you manage and analyze the advertising you do on social media.
• Sprout Social, 4.4/5 Stars (Sproutsocial.com): A long-time player in social-media management and analysis, Sprout Social is a sophisticated service that offers all the standard tools for planning, creating, managing and analyzing your social-media posts across all networks.
Sprout also distinguishes itself from many competitors by offering an Influencer Campaign Management Module. Marketers looking to connect and work with social-media influencers will want to take a look at this module, which enables them to reach out to social-media influencers, negotiate terms, create and manage contracts, review and approve content and pay creators in any currency.
The module also enables a marketers to glean a holistic view of the overall focus, direction and success of their work with social-media influencers.

STATE UPDATE

Alaska—Internal Combustion Engine: Alaska has introduced SEMA-supported legislation to protect consumers’ choice of vehicle powerplants and fuel by preventing a state agency, county or city from limiting access to certain power sources. Under current law, new gas- and diesel-powered vehicle sales may be threatened if narrow energy policies are adopted.

Arizona—Cruising: Arizona has introduced a SEMA-supported bill to allow automobile cruising activities to return statewide. Currently, local authorities are authorized to pass ordinances that regulate or prohibit cruising. This effort follows similar legislation that was approved in California last year. Having passed the House Committee on Transportation & Infrastructure, the bill now awaits consideration by the full House.

California—Speed Limiter: California has introduced SEMA-opposed legislation to require new vehicles to be equipped with speed governors starting in model-year ’27. Speed governors—also known as intelligent speed limiters—use GPS technology to limit vehicle speed. If enacted into law, new vehicles could not travel more than 10 mph above the speed limit. Currently, devices that prevent vehicles from exceeding a certain speed are not required.

Georgia—Suspension Laws: Georgia lawmakers introduced SEMA-supported legislation to revamp the state’s suspension modification laws. If enacted, this bill would remove the ambiguous 2-in. limit with a clear frame height standard. This aims to bring clarity, fairness and broader product options for Georgia’s off-road community and the automotive industry. The House Motor Vehicles Committee passed the bill, which now awaits a vote on the House floor.

Hawaii—Exhaust Noise: Hawaii has introduced SEMA-opposed legislation to reform its enforcement of exhaust noise laws by creating enhanced penalties for repeat offenders. However, the underlying laws are fundamentally flawed. Similar legislative proposals have failed to be approved in prior years, including last year. Currently, Hawaii prohibits mufflers that “noticeably increase the noise” and mandates that mufflers must be identical to their factory setting. The current law is unenforceable as it is vague, subjective and unfair.

Illinois—Internal Combustion Engine: Illinois has introduced SEMA-supported legislation that would prevent any state or local government unit from restricting the use or sale of motor vehicles based on the energy source used to power them, including internal combustion engines (ICEs). SEMA believes Illinois’ families, not the government, should be allowed to choose the vehicle technology that best serves them.

Kansas—Internal Combustion Engine: Kansas has introduced SEMA-supported legislation to ensure consumers’ choice of vehicle powerplants and fuel by preventing a state agency, county or city from limiting access to certain power sources. Under current law, new gas- and diesel-powered vehicle sales may be threatened if narrow energy policies are adopted.

Maine—Antique Vehicles: Maine has introduced SEMA-opposed legislation to limit the definition of “antique auto” to automobiles more than 35 years old. Currently, vehicles at least 25 years old are eligible for the distinction.

Maryland—Exhaust Noise: Maryland has introduced SEMA-opposed legislation to allow Anne Arundel, Montgomery, and Prince George’s Counties to enforce motor-vehicle noise requirements using sound-activated enforcement devices. Rather than investing in unproven technology, Maryland must implement a fair testing procedure and decibel limit for vehicle owners accused of exhaust noise violations.

Missouri—Single Plate: Missouri has introduced SEMA-supported legislation to allow the display of only a single, rear-mounted license plate for all passenger vehicles. These bills also apply to personalized plates. Under current law, vehicles must display two license plates.

New Jersey—Off-Highway Vehicles: The NJDEP Division of Parks and Forestry has published a SEMA-opposed plan to close 200 mi. of motorized vehicle trails at Wharton State Forest. While illegal ATV/UTV use and drivers leaving the established roads cause concern, targeting legal motorized vehicles is unlikely to deter trespassers. Closing legal roads will only hinder enforcement efforts and disenfranchise responsible users who often act as valuable eyes and ears, reporting illegal activity.

FEDERAL UPDATE

ZEV 2035 Mandate: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is reviewing the California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) “Advanced Clean Cars II” (ACC II) regulation, which requires all new vehicles sold in California to be zero emissions vehicles (ZEV) by 2035, at the time of publication. The regulation would prohibit the sale of traditional ICE vehicles in 2035, although ACC II allows for 20% of vehicles sold to be hybrids. ACC II requires that 35% of new cars, SUVs and small trucks sold in California must be ZEVs starting in 2026. The regulation increases ZEV sales requirements by 6% to 8% annually through 2035, when all new vehicles sold in California must be ZEV. Before ACC II can be implemented, CARB must receive a Clean Air Act (CAA) waiver from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the regulations to take effect.
SEMA is advocating against the EPA providing a waiver for ACC II. SEMA President and CEO Mike Spagnola submitted written and oral testimony in opposition to the agency providing a waiver for ACC II. The association has also rallied its member companies and automotive enthusiasts to send more than 5,000 letters to the EPA opposing a waiver for ACC II. SEMA also continues to advocate for Congress to pass a bill to prohibit the EPA from issuing a waiver for ACC II and any other regulations that would ban the sale of new ICE vehicles. The SEMA-supported “Preserving Choice in Vehicle Purchases Act” (HR 1435) passed the U.S. House of Representatives in September. The bill awaits action in the U.S. Senate.
Right to Repair: The U.S. Public Interest Research Group (PIRG) and iFixit submitted a petition for the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to issue a rulemaking to formalize right to repair protections. SEMA submitted a comment in response to the petition that highlighted the need for the federal government to protect consumers’ rights to decide where and with what parts they can use to repair, maintain and modify their vehicles.
SEMA also continues to advocate for HR 906, the “Right to Equitable and Professional Auto Industry Repair Act” (REPAIR Act), which currently awaits consideration in the House Energy and Commerce (E&C) Committee. The SEMA-supported REPAIR Act would ensure automotive enthusiasts, aftermarket parts manufacturers, and repair shops have access to the information and tools needed to maintain and personalize vehicles as automotive technology evolves. The bill currently has 50 bipartisan co-sponsors evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats.
SEMA is working to expand the REPAIR Act to ensure that it protects the right to modify your motor vehicle, engaging with E&C Committee members to address the presented amendments that were ultimately withdrawn before the House E&C Subcommittee on Innovation, Data and
Commerce passed the bill.
Digital Millennium Copyright Act: SEMA filed comments with the Library of Congress’ Copyright Office supporting the Motor & Equipment Manufacturer Association’s (MEMA) request for an exemption from the Digital Millennium Copyright Act for “Computer Programs—Vehicle Operational Data” that would allow for circumvention of technological protection measures (TPMS) on computer programs that are contained in and control the functioning of
a motor vehicle to allow vehicle owners and businesses acting on their behalf, to access, store and share vehicle operational data, including diagnostic and telematics data. The petition would create a necessary extension of an existing DMCA exemption for “Computer Programs—Repair of Motorized Vehicles” that was created in 2015 and was expanded in 2018 to both cover third-party service providers and remove the limitation prohibiting circumvention of TPMS to access computer programs primarily designed to control vehicle telematics and entertainment systems. The copyright office renewed this exemption in 2021 and again recommends that it be renewed in the ninth triennial review of Section 1201 exemptions.

Second Garage as an Independent Facility for Emissions Testing Is Another Significant Achievement for the Aftermarket

By Michael Imlay

SEMA Garage Detroit has received confirmation from the California Air Resources Board (CARB) that the new location is properly equipped for automotive exhaust emissions testing. A significant achievement for SEMA members, that confirmation was recently made official in a CARB-issued letter naming the Detroit Garage a Recognized Independent Emissions Lab, making it a qualified location for emissions compliance testing.
Located in Plymouth, Michigan, just outside Detroit, the facilities are part of a wider SEMA Garage program that includes the original location in Diamond Bar, California, whose emissions compliance program dates to 2015. Beyond emissions testing, both facilities offer a broad range of product-development services to association members, which can be accessed by visiting semagarage.com.
“We’re excited to receive this recognition from CARB,” said SEMA Vice President of Garage and OEM Relations Mike Mohacsi. “Now both of our Garages in Detroit and Diamond Bar are fully recognized by CARB, enabling us to serve more of our member companies throughout the country.”
The qualification broadens SEMA’s ability to serve its membership with certification-level automotive exhaust emissions testing to help design and manufacture products for legal sale in all 50 states. Testing plays a vital role in the CARB Executive Order (EO) process, particularly for products that may impact vehicle emissions. As of this announcement, there are now 24 CARB-recognized independent vehicle emissions testing labs in the United States, with just 14 of them (including SEMA’s two Garages) being equipped to serve the automotive aftermarket with light-duty tailpipe emissions testing.
However, among the latter 14 testing labs, SEMA’s two facilities are even more unique, says Ben Kaminsky, general manager of SEMA Garage Detroit and both locations’ emissions labs: “The emissions testing facilities at the SEMA Garage in Detroit and Diamond Bar focus on developing and certifying aftermarket components. We are the only two recognized labs in the country that expressly specialize in assisting aftermarket manufacturers.”
Kaminsky also emphasized the deep understanding of the regulatory process that the SEMA Garage staff brings to its work. Because staff members maintain relationships with CARB and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) while keeping up-to-date on regulations surrounding the Federal Clean Air Act and California Vehicle Code, they have special expertise in navigating those agencies’ changing and, at times, complex regulatory standards. This support enables manufacturers to efficiently test, develop, certify and bring their products to market more quickly and confidently.

“Our Diamond Bar Garage has done this testing work successfully for about a decade, and now the Detroit Garage expands our program’s capabilities,” Kaminsky explains. “But the real magic in the program’s sauce is the compliance element. The reason I say that is you can go to any of the 14 labs in the United States and get the testing done that you request, but the others will only do the exact tests you ask for. They don’t provide the guidance that we can provide. They mainly test for the OEMs, which deal with a completely different department of CARB in a completely different way.”

Why It Matters

Emissions compliance is a legal requirement. Under both California and federal laws, it is illegal for a company to sell performance products for street vehicles that can impact emissions. In fact, these laws extend to virtually every performance and engine product. Generally, any product that affects airflow into or out of the engine, impacts the containment or delivery of fuel, or affects the functionality of an emissions control system or device, must demonstrate emissions compliance to be considered legal for street use. This includes, but is not limited to, intake systems, exhaust components, tuning products, intercoolers, turbos and superchargers.

Unfortunately, within the aftermarket there has been a common misconception that as long as a product isn’t sold in California, it can be assumed to be “49-state legal.” Quite the contrary, the federal Clean Air Act prevents the modification of vehicles with products that impact emissions unless the product has demonstrated a “reasonable basis” for claiming emissions compliance.
For years, the surest way to demonstrate compliance with California and federal laws was to undertake CARB-specified testing for a product through an approved emissions lab. A product that passed that testing could then receive a CARB EO, basically approving it for sale and use in California. The EPA has traditionally recognized a CARB EO as reasonable-basis demonstration that a product meets federal laws as well.

But for those unfamiliar with the process, obtaining a CARB EO can be lengthy, costly and confusing—a major reason why SEMA launched its emissions compliance program in the first place. The SEMA Garage team is a dedicated, full-time staff that can shepherd members through all the various CARB EO application and testing requirements, offering communication support with CARB every step of the way, emphasized Kaminsky.
“As a non-profit organization, we have very competitive rates for testing,” he said. “But more than that, our compliance department works hand in glove with our Detroit and Diamond Bar labs to make sure we’re doing the correct testing for each and every product.”
“For example, if CARB presents us with a letter of prescribed tests that we don’t think are correct or applicable, we’ll work with them to fix that. Maybe the product doesn’t need any testing at all, or maybe it needs a reduced set of tests, or a different set of tests altogether. These are the sorts of conversations we’re having—we go to the nth degree to
make sure we’re providing the right services for our industry.”

In addition, the SEMA Garage has recently created a second, EPA-approved program known as SEMA Certified—Emissions, which satisfies the EPA’s “reasonable basis” criteria apart from a CARB EO. This makes a “SEMA Certified” product legal for sale in 49 states. The program is unique to SEMA.
“There may be circumstances where pursuing a CARB EO isn’t the best path for a company or a given product,” explained Peter Treydte, SEMA director of emissions compliance. “Since the EPA does not offer a program like CARB to demonstrate compliance, we’ve stepped into that gap. Our program meets the requirements of the EPA’s tampering policy. Following this path, a company receives documentation that’s very similar to a CARB EO that meets the EPA’s Tampering Policy requirements for 49-state legality.” One of the main advantages of the SEMA Certified—Emissions program is that a certified brand can begin selling into states other than California while it awaits a CARB EO, which can sometimes take longer to achieve. Plus, because much or all of the testing involved is similar to CARB requirements, a company can get a jump on the EO process as well.

Enforcement Actions

There was good reason to create such a program. Several years back the EPA stepped up clean-air enforcement actions, putting the performance aftermarket in its crosshairs. Businesses unable to show compliance risked devastating fines that could shutter their operations.

“The EPA maintains a compliance initiatives list in which they identify priority industries where they plan to focus their energies,” Treydte explained. “Five to seven years ago, our industry was specifically identified as a target for their compliance initiatives. That’s not the sort of attention you’d want, although I think it’s important to note that SEMA has always stressed and encouraged compliance.”
 “SEMA’s Government Affairs office, myself and others on our compliance team put a lot of effort into developing the SEMA Certified—Emissions program and expanding our SEMA Garage services to meet the needs of members facing that kind of enforcement. And it has really helped. The EPA recently recognized SEMA’s leadership in this, and our industry’s efforts to be compliant, and has since removed our industry from their compliance initiative list.”
“SEMA has said we’re going to continue helping our industry, and we’re putting our money where our mouth is,” added Kaminsky. “We had the Diamond Bar Garage, and then we went and minted another one, spending multiple millions of dollars on the latest and greatest emissions equipment. Whether you’re on the East Coast, the West Coast, or anywhere in between, we want to make sure that your time to market is optimal.”

“AVL, a main supplier of our testing systems, is a SEMA member just around the corner from us in Detroit. We use their latest, state-of-the art, OE-level equipment. In fact, some of the OEMs perform tests in our Garage. So our members have access to the same or similar equipment used by them.”
Most importantly, Kaminsky said, the two Garages demonstrate that SEMA and the industry are acting responsibly. “We’re being good stewards of the environment, and we intend to continue that. I think the message is clear that SEMA’s Board of Directors and leadership are committed to helping our industry continue doing what they do. Our team and our staff in D.C. have sent that message loud and clear to Washington, the EPA and CARB, and we mean
what we say and are acting as good citizens,”
he emphasized.
In fact, CARB’s recognition of the Detroit Garage coincides with a noteworthy milestone: To date, SEMA has secured more than 700 CARB EOs for its members, underscoring its pivotal role in facilitating emissions compliance and regulatory approval for aftermarket products.

Building for the Future

But the Detroit Garage is about far more than emissions work. Since its opening in 2022, the location has also featured an Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) Research Center, OEM measuring sessions, scanning services, advanced tools and equipment for product development and much more.
Plus, SEMA Garage services continue to grow. The Detroit location also houses a chassis dyno capable of range testing for battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and will soon add compliance testing equipment for motorcycle products as well.
“We’re also in communication with CARB on other compliance topics that would help our members,” said Treydte. “For example, cold-air or performance air intake systems are a popular product in our industry. Many of those products can be impacted by the hydrocarbon traps that OEMs have started to install in their intake systems.”
Such hydrocarbon traps constitute emissions devices, so aftermarket manufacturers making products for vehicles equipped with the traps are facing an emerging challenge. They either must accommodate the existing trap or provide an appropriate replacement.
“Any time that there’s the potential of removing and replacing an emissions device, CARB and the EPA are going to highly scrutinize that. I’ve spent nine years of my time at SEMA trying to forge a path forward for our members to do this, and within the last three months we have reached a point where CARB has accepted the alternative testing method that we have proposed. They actually issued an EO to one of our members who utilized the process and designed their intake system with an aftermarket hydrocarbon trap. That’s a huge breakthrough.”
And SEMA intends to help the aftermarket remain on the leading edge of these and other emerging technologies. “Building on our experiences with clean-air standards and how they impacted the industry, we want be ready for the next frontier—whatever it may be. We want to look out for
our membership’s future,” concluded Kaminsky.

SEMA Garage Services: More Than Emissions Testing

Each year SEMA members introduce thousands of new cutting-edge products and accessories designed to add enjoyment to their customers’ vehicle ownership. While some have universal fitments, many have model-specific applications that require significantly more research and development. The SEMA Garages give SEMA-member businesses access to special high-tech tools and equipment and the knowledge they need to get products off the drawing board and into their customer hands. The list includes:

• Tech Transfer: OEM-provided CAD files to minimize or eliminate the necessity for reverse engineering.
• Measuring Sessions: Timely measuring sessions provide hands-on access to new vehicles for designing and developing prototypes, including global vehicles popularly customized abroad but not sold in the United States (CAD files available).
• Electrification: Assistance with EV-related product and business development.
• Custom Scanning Services: Offering state-of-the-art FaroArm/CMM scanning systems. (Requires SEMA membership.)
• Vehicle ADAS: Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are active and passive “safety performance” technologies developed to assist drivers and automate vehicle systems. SEMA continues to research how these technologies impact vehicle modifications and other automotive dynamics and shares this research with the industry.
• Rapid Prototyping/3D Printing: Rapid prototyping using cutting-edge technology to create a physical model of your product.
• Training Centers: Both Garage locations include meeting spaces where member companies can host industry-related conferences, product reveals or full training sessions for their new products.
• Installation Centers: Both Garages are equipped with centers for test-fitting product prototypes or installing components on a project vehicle.

By SEMA News Editors

MarketsandMarkets has released a report showing the electric coolant pump market is projected to grow from $1.9 billion in 2024 to $3.9 billion by 2030.

The growth is expected to be influenced by factors such as growing stringency in emission regulations with decreased emission limits, where electric coolant pumps can help reduce engine load and lower emissions. Factors such as the increase in hybrid and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and powerful direct-injection engines installed with gasoline turbochargers are also estimated to boost the market. These factors fuel continuous developments in pump specifications like power output, and increasing collaborations between electric coolant manufacturers and OEMs drive its growing popularity. 

Key players in this space include Robert Bosch GmbH (Germany), Continental AG (Germany), Rheinmetall AG (Germany), Mahle GmbH (Germany), Denso Corporation (Japan), Aisin Seiki., Co. Ltd. (Japan), Concentric AB (Sweden), Schaeffler AG (Germany) and Hella GmbH & Co. KgAa (Germany). 

For more information, visit the MarketsandMarkets website here.

By SEMA News Editors

SEMA has announced the following candidates are vying for a seat on the SEMA Board of Directors: 

Manufacturer (Two Seats) 

• Rich Barsamian, Advanced Clutch Technology
• Brian Herron, OPUS IVS
• Kim Pendergast, Magnuson Products, Incumbent
• Melissa Scoles, QA1

Distributor Retailer (Two Seats) 

• Doug Lane, Motor State Distributing
• Kelle Oeste, V8 Speed Shop
• Josh Poulson, Auto Additions Inc.
• Rob Ward, Legacy EV

Service (One Seat) 

• Bill Bader, Summit Motorsports Park
• David Morton, Fifth Third Bank
• Todd Steen, Jackson Marketing

Voting will take place online between Tuesday, May 28 and Tuesday, June 11 and is open to current SEMA-member companies. Votes must be cast by each company's primary contact. Details on the upcoming election will be sent to the member company's designated primary contact beginning Tuesday, May 28. Winners will be announced by Friday, June 21. 

About SEMA

SEMA, founded in 1963, represents the $46.2 billion specialty automotive industry. The industry provides appearance, performance, comfort, convenience and technology products for passenger and recreational vehicles. Association resources include market research, legislative advocacy, training and product development support, as well as the leading trade show SEMA Show in Las Vegas, and the Performance Racing Industry (PRI) Trade Show in Indianapolis. For more information, visit sema.org, semashow.com or performanceracing.com.